Nowcast

polling (since GE2019)

the model

The ‘Nowcast’ model is based on recent GB wide polling, as well as Scottish Welsh, and London only polling. Vote share estimates are calculated from the most recent published poll from British Polling Council memberswith polls weighted by recency as well as historic pollster accuracy. The methodology is based on Martin Baxter’s strong transitional model albeit with many tweaks. Limited levels of tactical voting are also incorporated into the model which become stronger where the challenger is clearer.

It is important to remember that the Nowcast indicates how a General Election could play out if an election were to be held today, not in a few months or years time. It is not a prediction for the next election, rather a snapshot of public opinion at the time of publishing.